The South Has Fallen

Idolites -

As regular readers of this blog know, the winners of American Idol have almost always come from states in the South. Kris Allen (Arkansas) proved the South can put together votes with his massive upset over Adam Lambert last season. Well, with Miss Tennessee now out of the competition, the remaining Southern contestant is Casey James, from Texas. I thought her Tennessee roots would carry Didi a bit farther, but America got it right again.

Yes, Teflon Tim looks like he's trying to beat Nikki McKibbon's record of most times in the bottom 3 without getting eliminated, but he's only going to hang on for so long.

So here we sit. Three weeks into the Top 12 in the 'year of the girls' and we now only have three of them left. Do you think Lilly Scott would have been eliminated yet if she were in the Top 12? I don't think so. I can't believe they felt it was necessary to expand to a Top 13 for Anoop, but couldn't do the same for Lilly. I told you I'd be bitching about this for awhile.

To the pool...

We no longer have any perfect pools.

Beth Shanaman has held on to her first place lead, but it is down to just one point. Who is in second place you ask? Well, it's Season 7 pool champ Nancy Ging (mother of Ginger) and, yes, your's truly!! I actually had Didi out last night (along with 5 others) to give me two in a row. My problem...I have Aaron in 12th and Andrew winning. So, I'll savor my standing for a week.

With Didi's departure, the first four people lost their Idol.

It will be that way from here on out. Yes, someone actually picked Tim to win.

Until next week...

Pool Boy Out

Andrew's Back With A Touch Of Ginger

Idolites -

Well, one of you came through for me and passed along her magic touch to Andrew Garcia, getting him back on track in this competition. That's right, Tracy Ging (Ginger) is seen in the photo to the left with Andrew Garcia, who she met this weekend. Thanks Ginger! Maybe if we coax her, she can tell us more about their meeting in the comments section below?

On to the show...

So when Usher first comes on to talk about him being a mentor, it sounds like he's gonna be kind of a hard ass. Turns out he was a pretty nice guy.

SIOBHAN - "Through The Fire" OK, if any of you read my blog last week, you would have noticed that this was one of the songs I suggested for Andrew. Love the song. Love Siobhan. Hated that performance. Just seconds after Usher says Siobhan has a true shot at becoming an incredible artist, she delivers her worst performance of the season. Not a good spot to do that either. First out of the gate is not a good time to deliver a dud. Her vocals were off, her clothing was off, her makeup was off, her hair was off...yikes! She was really holding back the tears too. It was like a funeral when she went backstage. She'll be fine, but I think this may have been a bit of a wake up call.

CASEY - "Hold On" Casey continues his feel good blues guitar vibe, but delivers a much more solid performance. He continues to sing with that cheesy smile on his face throughout the song. I'd like to see him tone that down a bit. How about Ellen providing him with the slap down on playing it safe? For all of you that have been (unjustifiably) complaining about how Ellen is too nice, how was tonight for you? She was almost as negative as Simon. I love Ellen! Casey has made it clear who he is and what he'll be doing. I don't think it will translate into a win, but it will carry him into the Top 5 and a nice career. Good for you Casey!

MICHAEL - "Ready For Love" Big Mike did a nice job on this song from a vocal standpoint. I still don't understand why he ever brings out the guitar. It was completely unnecessary for this song, as you couldn't hear it at all. It also always looks like a ukulele up against his gigantic body. I still think he's a cheeseball, but this was a nice performance.

DIDI - "What Becomes Of The Broken Hearted?" YIKES! Well, Brooke White was back during her rehearsal session with Usher. I don't think he knew what to do while she was crying. I don't understand why contestants choose songs that have a sad emotional connection for them. Especially someone like Didi. She came out there looking like she was dressed for the grand buffet on her cruise ship. I felt like i was watching a performance at a beauty pageant. "Ladies and gentlemen, Miss Tennessee!" It was one of the worst performances I've seen on Idol. Nothing worked. Then, Seacrest somehow felt like he needed to save her and shill for extra votes by trying to pry out of her why she sang the song. To her credit, Didi was not ready to go there, but Ryan's 'Extra' persona kept picking and picking at her incessantly. Let her be Ryan!

TIM - "Sweet Love" HA! Anita Baker, Tim? I guess the producers of the show have been reading my blog, as they have now picked up on the Teflon Tim moniker. The poor kid doesn't even realize what it means. It means you are most definitely the second coming of Sanjaya. The song was just awful. It did come with two of the best quotes from the night, however. Ellen.."You can't walk like you're sneaking into a bedroom." HA!!! My favorite was from Tim, though. In his 'behind the scenes' clip he says (referring to the judges comments) "It wasn't as bad as it could have been." He just got beaten up, but could still see the bright side. Gotta love denial!

ANDREW - "Forever" So, the first thing I hear out of Andrew's mouth is that he's singing a Chris Brown song. Dude? Are your trying to get eliminated? Let's just piss off all the female voters. It all got better from there. He brought back the guitar!! He rocked the silver suit and Elvis hair do, looking much like Adam Lambert during R&B week last year. I didn't know the song and the lyrics were definitely cheesy, but I can't imagine it wasn't WAY better than the original. He has his mojo back, but I have a bad feeling about the results tonight anyway. Will a judges save happen?

KATIE - "Chain Of Fools" To me, a huge step back for her this week. First of all, she looked like she just got back from a shopping spree at Claire's and Hot Topic. The shorts were reminiscent of Paige's Crocodile Hunter outfit a few weeks ago. As for the song, Ellen nailed it again..she sounded old fashioned. Randy & Kara keep telling her this is the style she needs to keep singing. Simon is right if she wants a career. Pop country is her strength.

LEE - "Treat Her Like A Lady" Yes, this was kind of a rebirth of Lee as well. He sounded great and seemed to have more confidence. I still just can't get over the fact that he looks and hold himself just like Dave Mathews on stage. Tonight sounded like a mix of DM and Eddie Vedder. He just continually stands in one place holding his guitar way up high rocking back and forth like a mental patient. If this was his 'life changing' moment, as Simon asserted, then the talent pool truly is weaker this season.

CRYSTAL - "Midnight Train To Georgia" Nice! I get what Simon was trying to tell her, but what tonight did for Crystal was (much like Adam Lambert last season) to capture voters that probably weren't on her side previously. She was more accessible in her look and sound. She also made it clear that she is thinking about the compeition and wants to win. It was the first time, to me, that she looked like she wanted to be there. Ellen nails it yet again.

AARON - "Ain't No Sunshine" Blah. Didn't do much with the pimp spot of the night. Judges were right. It was OK. He'll be safe. Why do contestants consistently choose songs that have been done on the show before? Kris Allen killed that one just last year. You were watching, right Aaron?

RECAPS:

Best Look - Andrew HM - Casey, Lee

Worst Look - Katie HM - Siobhan, Didi

Best Performance - Crystal HM - Casey, Andrew, Lee

Worst Performance - Didi HM - Tim, Siobhan

PREDICTIONS:

Bottom 3 (should be) - Tim, Didi, Katie

Bottom 3 (will be) - Andrew, Tim, Katie

Out (should be) - Tim

Out (will be) - NO ONE!! That's right, here is my bold prediction tonight. Andrew will be in the position to sing for his life and will be saved. I hope this isn't the case, because I'll be freaking out, but I gotta feeling!

Be sure to vote on you you think will go.

- Pool Boy Out

Turn The Paige...Idol Summer Tour Is Set

America is 2 for 2.

I guess this isn't such a surprise. As in past seasons, the first couple of cuts in the Top 12 are usually the weaker contestants. Neither Paige or Lacey really had any business being there in the first place (did I ever mention how I thought Lilly Scott got a raw deal?).

Now, this 'season of the girls' only has four of them remaining. Albeit, the best two contestants (by far) are both female. However, the boys are getting votes...including the teflon pair of Tim and Andrew.

Of course I was thrilled to see that Andrew not only avoided the bottom 3 yet again, but also let Seacrest know that his musical strength is in doing acoustic songs. Duh! So, I'm hoping he listens to himself, ignores Usher and Simon, and does a completely stripped down version of a song by, say Chaka Khan ("Through The Fire" or "Ain't Nobody"), Terence Trent D'arby ("Wishing Well"), TLC ("Waterfalls"), Amy Winehouse ("You Know I'm No Good"), or even Joss Stone ("Put Your Hands On Me"). Yes, I want Andrew back. I want Idol back. I think he is one of the few contestants left that can bring some originality to challenge Siobhan and Crystal...and, yes, my pool hopes are riding on his back.

As for the pool, we now only have two perfect pools remaining. Gavin Fysh & long-time Idolite Beth Shanaman are two for two. They each have 20 points and hold a 3 point lead on the rest of the field. They each have Tim going out next week as well. Unless he continues to pull a Nikki McKibbon and survive the bottom 3 week after week, they could be building a sizable lead.

This brings me to a request of some of you. Many of you are new to the pool this year. Also, many have entered their own pools on the standings website with user names I do not recognize. In order for me to understand who has paid, as well as allow me to acknowledge throughout tthe season, can those of you that DO NOT have your full name as your user name, please e-mail me directly with both? (asoenkeruona@gmail.com) It would really be helpful.

Lastly, I have determined the payouts for the pool. We have a total of 93 entries, for a total of $930 in the pot. I have decided to pay out the Top 14 spots as follows:

1st Place - $300, 2nd - $150, 3rd - 100, 4th - $75, 5th - $60, 6th - $40, 7th - $35, 8th - $30, 9th - $30, 10th - $25, 11th - $25, 12th - $20, 13th - $20, 14th - $20

Until next week,

Pool Boy Out!

The Fonz Has Strapped On The Waterskis

Idolites -

Was it when Paula decided not to return this season? No, I don't think so. I wasn't happy when she did and I certainly wasn't looking forward to Ellen as her replacement. However, I have been really impressed with Ellen (despite those who inexplicably feel Ellen is too nice...did you watch Paula in the first eight seasons? She made Ellen look like Gordon Ramsey.)

Was it when Simon announced this would be his last season? Maybe. I'm certainly skeptical on how AI will be able to replace him, but he's still here now...thankfully!

No, I think it was tonight's show when American Idol officially jumped the shark. I should have known it when they announced that Miley Cyrus was the 'mentor' for the week. Really? Miley Cyrus? Don't get me wrong, I don't have any issue with her as a person. She's obviously highly successful in just about every venture she has tried. She also has yet to become a drugged out skank like, say, Lindsay Lohan or Britney Spears. Is she really qualified to mentor anyone on singing, though? "Be sure to look into the eyes of a few fans in the front row. It will make their day." Yeah, because Hannah Montana just looked at them. I don't think Paige Miles will have quite the same effect.

Things just got worse from there...

LEE - "The Letter" I think Randy, Ellen and Kara all saw a flash forward of the rest of the show, because they were way too enthusiastic about that performance. While he did better than most this evening, had that performance been done another time, I don't think he would have looked as good as they thought. Going first is always tough on a 2-hour show and I just don't think he did anything that would make me say, "Wow, Lee could win this thing." He was complimented on how he looked more comfortable on stage, but I still just see him as a hunchback that looks like he can't wait to get off stage. I do like his voice, but he continues to pick songs that don't showcase it very well. At least he looked good. He'll be safe, though, because...

PAIGE - "Against All Odds" Starting with Corey Clark in Season 2, this song has been hacked several times on Idol, but Paige took it to a new level tonight. After she performed last week, I though she sounded fine. Lackluster, but fine. Then we heard about her having laryngitis and I was actually kind of impressed. Tonight I was asking myself if she was still sick. My gosh that was awful. Ellen pulled a Paula and decided to compliment her looks (which were good) and not get involved in the bloodbath, which was actually quite humane. I will be shocked if she isn't in the bottom 3 for a second straight week. I really think she'll be leaving as well. This season has been full of mediocrity, but that was flat out horrible.

TIM - "Crazy Little Thing Called Love" So when I saw that Tim was up next, I thought, "Wow, how lucky! He gets to follow that train wreck. He could do another reggae version of Under My Thumb and still sound better than Paige." Never underestimate the power of suck. Tim has truly taken the Sanjaya role by the horns. He's got the looks and the young girls will call and text their votes in with even more ferocity this week. His performances are getting more and more desperate, however. He's like Peter Brady looking for his personality. That was SO awkward, I was uncomfortable. Even Ellen took the gloves off, with one of my favorite lines of the night.."There will be a large group of people (i.e. 10 - 14 year old girls) that will love that performance...then there's me." Nice! I actually think he may sneak his way out of the bottom 3 this week, based solely on the fact that he was so bad that his supporters are probably being even more diligent than ever to make sure they vote.

AARON - "Don't Want To Miss A Thing" My namesake gets the sympathy vote right off the bat with his admission of laryngitis and tonsillitis (hmmm?). He's a sweet kid and I think either he or Tim will go fairly far, as I think they share a lot of the same fans. That being said, Aaron can actually sing. Looking like he was being attacked by zippers, I didn't really like his performance tonight, but (of course) he gets the illness pass. I kind of agree with Simon, that Aaron seems a bit on the old fashioned side to me. He's like a more awkward, less cute and confident David Archuletta. He is a sweet kid, though and getting to follow Tim & Paige pretty much guarantees he'll be here another week.

CRYSTAL - "Me & Bobby McGee" Wow, what a stretch. Crystal sings Janis Joplin. Of course, it was really good. I'm sure she also really enjoyed hearing Miley Cyrus tell her to push it a little more. This is it folks. She is the front runner. I completely agree with Ellen on the fact that she doesn't seem to connect with the audience. In my opinion, I think she is still somewhat embarrassed to be on American Idol. You can't tell me that, years ago, when she stopped washing her hair and was sitting outside the coffeehouse playing her guitar and singing for her stoney buddies playing hackey sack she was thinking that American Idol would be a cool thing to win. I'd also put money on the fact that she has probably already gotten ribbed by some of her friends for even trying out, much less doing well. She's smart enough to realize that this is a way for her to be able to take care of her baby, but I just don't sense she's truly into it. I'm also getting a little bored with the fact that she rarely has anything new to bring to the songs she performs. Again, I think she has mad vocal skills and is definitely one of the best singers on the sure for sure. I'm just not buying it yet.

MICHAEL - "When A Man Loves A Woman" Yes, we all like Michael's big personality. Yes, he can sing and did so as well as anyone tonight. But he still seems cheesy and old to me. I keep waiting to hear him sound like a contemporary artist, but think he has too much of a (as Kara put it perfectly) loungy sound and feel. I've never been a fan of someone that riffs so much either...boy am I a whiny curmudgeon right now. He's safe.

ANDREW - "I Heard It Through The Grapevine" UGH!!!!!! OK, my pool is definitely done. I must rely on Presley's from here on out. First of all, I completely disagree with Simon and Miley Cyrus on the fact that he should ditch his guitar. Have they been watching the past few weeks? every time he leaves his guitar backstage, he's just awful. They keep hearkening back to "Straight Up"...well, guess what? He had his guitar. He needs it back to regain any confidence he may still have. I still think he's one of only a couple of contestants that has the ability to change up a song's arrangement with any sort of success. He hasn't done it forever and may have just imploded enough to make it irrelevant anyway. Thankfully, Presley's pool has him exiting in 6th. I hope he can hold on that long. Why did I think a guy from California with limited singing range and a neck tattoo had a shot to win? I'm an idiot.

KATIE - "Big Girls Don't Cry" I miss Lilly Scott. Katie is fine. Kinda like Aaron. She has a nice voice and is very sweet. Her look this week was much better and she's headed in the right direction. I do have to agree with Simon, though, on the fact that she would do best in a pop-country style of song. She's just too sweet to go down the pop-R&B route Kara seems to want her to try. Her personality and vocal style would seem to fit better with the fans of country, in my opinion. Tonight she did OK. Dumb song, but at least it (and she) was more contemporary.

CASEY - "The Power Of Love" ***SIGH*** Really? Don't get me wrong, I actually like that song (mostly from a sentimental point-of-view), but is that really what you want to sing on Idol? Simon nailed it with the 80's cover band reference. During his entire lead-in package, Casey talked about how he was used to playing in smaller venues and needed to venture out and move around. Did I miss something? Seemed like he did exactly what he does every week and didn't move a bit from that microphone. The dude can definitely play the guitar, but this ain't Guitar Idol, is it? At some point, he's going to need to prove he can handle himself as a front man without the guitar. I like Casey, but at this point, he and Lee like no more than small club rock band singers. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but it's not going to win American Idol. If it does, the show has fallen farther than I thought.

DIDI - "You're No Good" First off, she looked great! Next, I give her props for changing the arrangement slightly in an attempt to make it her own. That being said, it was a bit slow and clumsy. I'm really not sure what to think of this season's Brooke White. Being from a solid voting region (Tennessee) seems to be her biggest asset. That will only last so long. She could be in trouble this week.

SIOBHAN - "Superstition" After last week's epic performance, Siobhan gets the pimp, final slot on the show. The producers clearly see her potential for holder viewer attention, much like Adam Lambert. People are now waiting and wondering what she will do next, much like Adam. Ellen kind of summed it up when she said "We just want to see more and more of you." That's exactly the problem with this season. Siobhan is the only one that has compelling enough performances that most everyone wants to see...like her or not. As for tonight, she missed the mark. Not a great choice of song and it was done in fairly unoriginal fashion. Though I did like her hair! That being said, even Adam sang "Play That Funky Music", so she's allowed a Mulligan. I hope she gets back on track next week. Simon, who was right on point all night long, made a poignant and sobering statement at the end of the show about how it was a pretty miserable night. As you could probably tell by my tone, I wholeheartedly agree. In fact, Andrew Garcia's state right now very much sums up how I am feeling about Idol. It's kinda like "Remember when you were really good? We need you to be more like that. Not sure where things went wrong, but you need to go back to being as good as you used to be or you're in trouble." Much like Andrew, I'm starting to lose faith in whether things will ever be like they were. Also much like Andrew, I really hope they will be.

RECAP TIME:

Best Look - Didi Honorable Mention - Lee, Paige

Worst Look - Tim Honorable Mention - Aaron

Best Performance - Crystal

Worst Performance - Paige Honorable Mention - Tim, Andrew

PREDICTIONS:

Bottom 3 (should be) - Paige, Tim, Didi

Bottom 3 (will be) - Paige, Andrew, Didi

Out (should be) - Paige

Out (will be) - Paige

Tomorrow, I'll give you all an update on the pool payouts.

- Pool Boy Out!

After Lilly Scott Fiasco, America Gets Back On Track

Idolites -

I have to say I was pleasantly surprised at he results tonight. No, I didn't have Lacey going out this week. My lovely bride Leah did, however, and she finds herself in an eight way tie for first in the pool.

What I liked was that the (arguably) three weakest contestants were all in the bottom three. No surprises...and no Andrew...whew!

I also liked the new element the show added on the judges save song. Last season, the contestant 'in trouble' had to (like in seasons past...and in the past three weeks) sing the song they obviously sucked on the night before. When you're singing 'for your life' you want to show the judges the best you have to offer. Granted, Lacey had no shot at getting saved, but at least she got to leave with dignity. Sadly, we've lost the best hairdo in the competition.

Speaking of dignity, does Seacrest think he can just say anything about a musical artist and we'll take it as gospel? How can he call tonight's guest, Orianthi, a 24-year old from Australia "a pioneer in rock"? She can certainly play the guitar, but that song sounded pretty pop to me. Plus I think there have been a couple of female rock guitarists before her..yes?

I'm getting old. Kesha is popular? Really? Seemed like Lady Gaga-lite with two of the whitest back up rappers I've ever seen. Blah, blah, blah is right.

James has the pool standings up: http://www.mungermack.com/pools/idol/index.cgi

I'll get more into the pool statistics next week, but I am extremely excited at the stuff James has posted already. Heaven to a stat geek like myself.

Speaking of James, I wanted to extend another thank you to him for taking on our pool on his website. I am actually getting a normal amount of sleep this week, which is normally filled with two or three long nights getting the pool set up.

As soon as we have all the participants pools worked out, I'll get a breakdown of the payouts to you. I'm guessing the top 14 or 15 will get paid.

Enjoy the weekend and next week's performances. I'll be in touch.

- Pool Boy

Start Me Up!

Idolites -

We're off and running! All pool entries have been submitted and the preliminary count is 95 entries. There were a couple of folks that had issues entering their picks and we're working that out today. At worst, we'll have 93. While the number of entries is down slightly from last year's high of 105, I do believe we have more people entered this year. I think there are fewer folks that entered three or four.

So, to all of your returning and to those of you new to this ridiculous pool...thank you and welcome!

Now on to the show. Wait, no, if you live in Burien, WA and have Comcast cable you probably missed the show last night, yes? Lucky & I sat there and watched in horror at 7:58pm, when our TV, Internet and Phone service went out. I called Comcast on my cell phone and they acknowledged there was an 'issue' happening in my area, but could give no explanation or timeline as to when things would be fixed. I was forced to admit that I run this pool and write this blog and that this was pretty much the worst time for them to be having 'issues'. I noticed that the DVR record light was on, so I asked him if it was recording the show? "No, you aren't receiving a signal...we will credit your account for one day's service, however."

Really? That's it. It's come to this? A 41-year old married man sitting with his wife and 8-year old son in their family room staring at the blank screen on their TV in full panic. What to do? I went into the storage closet to see if I had a rabbit ear antenna...no luck. Then, I realized that my good friends and neighbors across the street have Direct TV, so I gave them a call. Chuck Nelson is my hero! I asked him if they were recording the show, because I didn't want to barge in on their family time. He said he would, but I could come over and watch if I wanted. his wife Julie was out of town and he and the kids didn't have anything they were set to watch anyway. I waited 10 more minutes to see if Comcast would come back...it didn't. So, thanks to Chuck, Riley & Gage, I was able to venture over and watch the entire show....Wind Beneath My Wings!!!

So....

The judges get their pimped out introduction and head to their desk. Ryan announces that the singers will now be performing in front of 450 screaming fans. 450? That's it? Hmmm...it seemed so much bigger to me. It's kind of the Seacrest of venues. I've been very excited since they announced they would be performing Rolling Stones songs. All of a sudden I realized that I have been let down so many times in the past when the contestants sing the songs of an artist I really like (Neil Diamond, Michael Jackson, etc.). Where there is usually one or two really cool interpretations, there are usually way more hack jobs that leave me more angry that some teeny bopper just ruined one of my favorite songs. I let that feeling pass and decide to relax and enjoy what's coming.

MICHAEL - "Miss You" Alright, here we go. This is the moment you all get to start hating on me. To me Michael is like the black Danny Gokey. He has the nice back story (albeit not a tragic one) that we are continually reminded of. In fact, unlike Danny, Michael has no problem constantly talking about his family and newborn baby and how he needs to support them now. I like him, but he's already wearing on me. As far as his performance, I definitely felt more like Simon. I thought his jumping around on stage seemed like fake energy and kinda desperate. I do feel like his voice is really good and the performance he delivered last week was his best by far. I know he's a physical trainer (who needs to lose about 50 pounds), but that doesn't mean he needs to do calisthenics on stage. He should take a lesson from Ruben Studdard (the performing part, not the diet).

DIDI - "Playing With Fire" This season's Brooke White sang a dark and forgettable song in my opinion. I do like the tone of her voice, but I think she showed off her lack of range tonight when she tried pushing her limits. As a contestant, I think she'll do OK. She's pretty, she cries and is from a strong voting region (Tennessee). Ultimately, however, I think she'll end up in the middle of the pack. Like most of the contestants this season, she lacks the star power to move her terribly far. Tonight was a perfect example.

CASEY - "It's All Over Now" Great back story! I love his mom and he just seems like a very grounded, genuine guy. I have kind of felt sorry for him throughout his journey into the Top 12. He is constantly being reminded of his looks and Kara's crush on him. Now, I think Kara is extra hard on him as a way to deflect any favoritism she may show. All I can say is that if it were a female contestant that Randy or Simon asked to strip down during her audition, Idol would be hounded by women's groups crying for their dismissal from the show. That being said, I think Casey may be relying a bit too much on his guitar playing. I think he's a good player, but this is a singing competition, right? At some point, he is going to need to come out without the guitar and prove that he can sing...and I think he can. He has a really good and unique voice. He has also (smartly) set himself apart as THE country contender. That, along with coming from a strong voting state (Texas) should move him into the top 5 without question. Again, Simon was correct in saying that he needs to show us that he has star appeal. He has the looks, the voice and the talent....one powerful performance would make him a contender to win it all.

LACEY - "Ruby Tuesday" Lacey saunters out looking like Pat Benatar during an early 80's video shoot. I'm liking the arrangement with the violins. She has a nice, sweet voice to go along with her nice, sweet personality. I'm starting to get bored now. Oh no, she's sitting down (one of my Idol Faux Pas'). OOk, now she's picking up the tempo and really showing off her vocal skills...why is she still sitting down? Thankfully, Ellen points out the same thing, so I don't feel like I'm crazy. I do like Lacey. I think she has a unique voice and seems like a genuinely sweet preacher's daughter. She has no shot at winning which is why she was one of only two contestants that no one picked to win. Although I imagine I said the same thing about Kris Allen last season..but, really she has no shot.

ANDREW - "Gimme Shelter" Sigh! I agonized over my picks this season...just ask Leah. I thought she was going to punch me in the middle of my whining (which would have been completely justified!). I had determined that there was a definite separation between the top 6 and bottom 6. From there, it could be anyone. So, on my pool, I decided to take a chance on Andrew. Going into the Top 24, he was the odds on favorite to win...by the judges and the odds makers. He had been sliding backwards ever since, but he obviously had shown at some point that he had the skills to win. So, I took a chance on him to turn things around. i thought the Rolling Stones would be the perfect platform for him to re-establish himself as someone that could win this thing. So, we get his emotional back story and talk about his guitar. His best performance (which we continually have to hear about..Straight Up) was using his guitar. His worst performance was the one without the guitar....WHERE THE HELL WAS YOUR GUITAR ANDREW???? He picked one of my favorite Stones songs to sing and then went out and did a mediocre version with no originality. Are you trying to lose? My pool is screwed. Thank goodness I have Presley's pool to fall back on.

KATIE - "Wild Horses" Believe it or not, Katie was the other favorite by the odds-makers going into the Top 24. She has shown her weakness ever since and, much like Andrew, has found herself struggling to make it through to the next week. She starts off the song by sitting...enough of that please! She is able to show off her really incredible voice. I actually think she should try to work a country angle. Her voice fits it well and there is no other girl doing that right now. She's cute, tries hard and could garner a lot of votes. She still looks like she's playing dress up, which points out the fact that she is so young and still finding her way. With Lilly and Katelyn out of the picture, I think she is the third best girl left. However, Siobhan and Crystal are SO far ahead of her I don't see her finishing any higher than middle of the pack.

TIM - "Under My Thumb" Tim's playing with house money right now. He wasn't supposed to be in the Top 24, but lucked his way in. His first performance was so awful, he became the poster boy for VoteForTheWorst.com and now finds himself in the Top 12. So, to "take a risk" he performs a reggae version of Under My Thumb. Overall, I though the evening had mostly ho-hum performances with one great performance and one lousy one. This was the lousy one. With the mop hair, cute looks and, now, laughably bad performances Tim has earned his role as the Sanjaya of Season 9. I felt like I was listening to Jason Castro (I can feel the protests coming already). The funny thing is that Tim could end up with a similar career...playing at weddings for reality TV stars. He even gave out the Danny Gokey heart sign while on stage with Seacrest. I really do like Tim, but he's becoming a joke...that will take him at least 3 to 5 more weeks into the competition.

SIOBHAN - "Paint It Black" Whew! OK, my original pick to win it all was Siobhan. In our household, we normally have each one of our four pools pick a different winner. Before I made my picks, Leah had chosen Siobhan. Lucky picked Crystal, so that left (in my mind) Lee, Andrew and Casey as the only other potential winners. I decided (poorly) to choose Andrew on my pool. Presley's pool is always my secondary one. I just like Siobhan so much, that I threw out my normal rule and, thankfully, chose her to win on Presley's. She did not disappoint. This was, by far, the best performance of the night. Kara hit it on the head when she said she was seeing visions of Adam Lambert. I was getting goosebumps each time she hit a higher...and higher note. She had the look (except the hair...who did that?) and the performance to match her wicked vocals. Match that with her quiet confidence and nutty personality and I truly do think she is the one to beat. She is the only thing that can heal the pain of losing Lilly Scott. WOW!

LEE - "Beast Of Burden" Leah & I had talked last week about how much he is starting to look and sound like Dave Mathews. This performance just reinforced that. Randy even dropped in that observation. The problem is that Dave Mathews would never win American Idol...and unless he comes through with more confidence and star power, neither will Lee. This song was nice, but didn't (as Simon would put it) have any "wow" factor. I really do like his voice. I think he has the potential to work himself into more of a David Cook-type of performer, but that time is running out. He needs to change it up or be satisfied with a Top 5 finish and Idol obscurity.

PAIGE - "Honky Tonk Woman" Will dressing like the Crocodile Hunter and singing a more upbeat performance change how we feel about Paige? No, I don't think so. She's kind of like Lacey with a bigger voice. Super sweet, pretty and a nice voice. Yet, she still has that deer in the headlights look in her (pretty) eyes. Every time I watch her perform, I feel like I'm listening to a really good singer at karaoke. Thanks to Simon for actually asking her what she was struggling with all week. Gotta give her props for sounding so good after having laryngitis. That being said, I'm angry America put her through instead of Lilly.

AARON - "Angie" Of course I would love for my namesake to be great, but he just isn't...yet. Unlike David Archuletta, Aaron doesn't have the experience of performing behind him and I think his age will eventually hurt him. He did well tonight..and, despite the idiotic hair-do, looked good as well. He is a sweet guy that could last a few more weeks. I think he or Tim will go farther than anyone thinks. The other will be going home soon. Aaron just doesn't move me with his performances and comes off kind of boring.

CRYSTAL - " You Can't Always Get What you Want" Idol definitely wants her to win. They give her the best spot on the show yet again. The odds makers have her as the prohibitive favorite and so does our pool. 32 entries have Crystal as their Idol. I think she and Siobhan are head and shoulders above the rest at this point. Here is why I don't think she will win: 1) She seems to be indifferent about her position on the show. I think that "I don't care" attitude will eventually turn off voters in the long run. 2) Her health is a concern. She has already been sent to the hospital once and looked like she was going to pass out during last week's show. I really hope not, but it is a concern. 3) She is the odds-on favorite. I have written about this before (check the blog archives for the exact stats). The performer who is the favorite going into the Top 12 NEVER...I repeat, NEVER wins. Just ask Chris Daughtry or Bo Bice or David Archuletta. That being said, she always delivers a solid performance. Last night was no exception. It was good, but not great. The judges keep pushing her and reminding her she is the favorite, which I think will come back to bit her. Ultimately, I'd be shocked if she wasn't in the Top 4 at worst. She's just too good. But for you 32 folks that have her winning...sorry ;-)

RECAP TIME:

Best Look - Andrew (I liked the coat) Honorable Mention - Casey, Siobhan (sans hair-do)

Worst Look - Paige (R.I.P. Steve Irwin) Honorable Mention - Katie

Best Performance - Siobhan (No contest) Honorable Mention - Crystal

Worst Performance - Tim Honorable Mention - Andrew

PREDICTIONS:

Bottom 3 (should be) - Tim, Paige, Didi

Bottom 3 (will be) - Andrew, Paige, Didi

Out (should be) - Tim

Out (will be) - Andrew (ouch...I hope I'm wrong)

That's all for now. If you want to reply to this blog, click onto the blog link below and make comments there. You can also vote in the poll on who you think will go home tonight.

- Pool Boy out

Game On!

OK Idolites!

Before I get to the business, I have to say that I'm already a bit angry. I can't believe Lilly Scott didn't make the Top 12. I won't comment on the ones that did make it, as I don't want to influence any picks, but America really missed the boat on her. I also thought Alex Lambert should be there, but have an easier time swallowing that one, as he was clearly not quite ready...but man did he have a nice voice. **DEEP BREATH AARON**

After months of auditions and a ho-hum battle from the Top 24 contenders, the Top 12 has been determined. Now it's time for all of you to try and figure out how these singers will finish out the season. I am sending out this blog entry via e-mail (as I will throughout the season), so you will find an official pool entry form attached. If you want to forgo the form and just enter your picks on the official standings website, that would be great. If you are phobic about diving into that or are just lazy, you can still just fill out the form and return to me. I'll make sure it gets entered onto the standings site. Regardless of whether you use the form or not, please take a look at it, as all the pool rules are located there. Here are the instructions of how to enter your picks on the site:

Go to http://www.mungermack.com/pools/

If you DO NOT have an account yet:

* Click Register on the left navigation bar

* Fill in the appropriate information and click Go

* Your passcode will be e-mailed to you automatically

* Go back to the main pools page

Okay, you have an account:

* Use your login and passcode to log in on the left navigation bar

* Click American Idol 2010 (pay) - or (free) if you're a wuss

* Click Set Picks on the navigation bar

* Choose who is your Idol, first runner-up, and so on. The red is to guide toward whom you have or haven't picked yet.

* Click Go when complete. Done.

This will automatically join you to this pool, AND the free one (which requires no extra work).

If you wish to enter more than one pool...

* Log out using the link on the left navigation bar.
* Go the beginning and set up and register another account.

Again, if you have any problems, either e-mail James Munger: jmunger1@yahoo.com OR just fill out the entry forms and send to me. James & I will get you set up.

Three last items...

1) Be sure to vote on the first poll of the season, which is located on the right panel of this blog. This one is about your opinion on Ellen's judging so far.

2) You may have noticed the Christmas card at the top of this entry. Well, it really is from Kris Allen. He and his family rented out the home of one of my good friends over the Holidays this year. She was able to get me not only his autograph, but a copy of his actual Christmas card, which looks like it was purchased from Walgreen's...just like ours!! My friends said he was a really cool, down-to-earth guy that seemed genuinely uncomfortable with his fame. Well, he definitely earned another fan in me. He's a pretty good pitch man for Ford too!

3) Did anyone else notice that Matt Giraud kinda ruined the Third Eye Blind: Part Deux premiere, by obviously having his signature feature removed from his forehead. Oh well, at least they sounded awful.

Good luck on putting your pools together. Things look much tougher this season. Should be interesting.

Please e-mail me with any questions or concerns.

- Pool Boy

Season 8 Recap and Final Thoughts

Idolites –

I know I was going to wait until the weekend to write this, but I can already feel my interest fading as we look in the rearview mirror. I can’t imagine my thoughts would be any more enjoyable to read (if they ever were anyway) as we move farther away from the show. So, I’ll leave you with my final thoughts now before you forget who won…did you remember that it was Kris Allen? Crazy!

THE FINAL SHOW

My random thoughts:

What a great Finale! Usually, about 30 minutes into the final show, I’m looking at the clock just wanting them to announce the winner already. Wednesday’s show was spectacular in so many ways that I was sad to see it end…until Kris was crowned, then I couldn’t wait to shut it off.

Best moments:

• Norman Gentle…simply the 2nd best performer on the show this season. Comic genius and great entertainer. I was beaming when he tore off the sweat suit and broke into I’m Not Going one last time. The fact that I dressed up as him for the party was icing on the cupcake.


• Adam with KISS…No secret I love Adam. Did you also know that in 1978 at the Cow Palace in South San Francisco, a 9-year old Pool Boy saw his very first live concert? Who was playing? That’s right, my favorite band at the time…KISS! So, when Adam was up there singing Beth (which fired up Idolite & Season 2 pool champ Beth Shanaman), I told everyone at our viewing party “If KISS comes out to sing with Adam, I may just have to use the bathroom.” 30 seconds later, I ran into the bathroom…just to scream, though. When Adam first came on stage with the platform boots and wings, I thought he had decided that this was the time he was going to come out of the closet. Heck, the voting was over now, so why pander to the prejudice voters anymore? It was Adam as I hope to see him in the future…larger than life and over the top! Fabulous!!


• The very end of the bit with Kara and Bikini Girl. At first, I was just rolling my eyes when Bikini Girl and her fake cans strutted up on stage to sing. I was, however, impressed that she was able to turn her 15 minutes into 34 DD’s. During her initial audition, Kara lost points with me when she started singing the song. I was wondering why she thought she had to prove herself. Out singing Bikini Girl is like me beating Lucky at basketball…who cares? (and kinda desperate). Then, when Kara came on stage to sing last night, I realized that she was poking fun at herself a little bit. That gained her a little credibility from me. As I was watching the song, I was thinking “ What would have been cool is if Kara came out in a bikini.” Less than 30 seconds later, I got my wish (as if my mind controlled the whole thing…creepy!). That moment pretty much counter-balanced No Boundaries. She’s back to even in my book.
  
• Allison’s duet with Cyndi Lauper…I realized why Allison didn’t seem intimidated singing Time After Time right next to Cyndi…she was born about 8 years after it’s release. It wasn’t an iconic part of her childhood. She did a very nice job!
  
• Rod Stewart. I mostly respected the fact that he obviously big-timed the producers and said “Um, yeah, I’m Rod Stewart…so go ahead and let the Top 13 do a hack medley of Do Ya Think I’m Sexy? and I’ll sing Maggie May by myself, thank you.”
  
• Adam completely out singing Kris with Queen doing We Are The Champions.
  

How is it that Lil Rounds get to perform a duet with Queen Latifah? Anoop finished higher and he didn’t get his own duet. Even in the Finale, the Idol producers are in denial that Lil just wasn’t that good. She had all of us fooled.

I was brutally reminded that instead of Alexis Grace, America gets to see Michael Sarver on the Idols tour! I’m sure the mic-tapping oil-rigger will put on an excellent show…not!

SEASON 8 FINAL THOUGHTS

Adam Lambert was simply the most creative and interesting contestant to ever be on the show. Whether you liked him or not, I’ll bet you found yourself on Tuesday mornings this Spring wondering “What will Adam sing tonight?” You probably also found yourself talking about him on Wednesday mornings much more than any other contestant…and about how cool or unusual his performance was, not because he was so awful. That’s a star. Many think Adam screams too much and were too distracted by his awesome performing skills. I downloaded the studio versions of Mad World, If I Can’t Have You and Feeling Good. All of them sounded even better than on the show, and were very subdued. They demonstrated to me that he isn’t just a performer…he can sing and sing well. The “screaming” he does on certain songs happens when he performs live. I happen to love it, because there are very few singers that can do what he does. There are a bazillion singers that sound like Kris…in my humble opinion.

All my love for Adam aside, in most circumstances I would be the type of person that would have rooted for Kris. I tend to support the underdog. Heck, Kris is even a really nice guy that seems genuinely humble and surprised by all of his success. I could just never get beyond his boring (in my opinion) music style and bland personality…and where I do love an underdog, I also appreciate when someone is unique and memorable. A perfect example was during last night’s show. I was in the other room and heard a song being sung by a guy. My first guess was that is was Matt G., then Kris. Turns out it was Anoop. If it were Adam (even Allison, Danny or Megan..that’s right, I said Megan) I would have known instantly who it was, because of the unique vocals. One of the reasons I think Kris did so well along the way was because he was singing songs that were current. I obviously hadn’t heard of a lot of the songs he was singing, but the millions of teen girls (ones that have the stamina and time to dial in votes for two to four hours at a time) most certainly did. Adam sang songs I liked. Kris sang the songs voters liked. Damn!

We’ll see if Kris will go the way of David Cook, Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood? Or will he see sales more like Ruben, Taylor or Fantasia? My guess is that it will be somewhere in the middle…just like Kris, safe and middle of the road. That being said, I don’t think anyone should ever bet against this guy. He obviously leads a charmed life.

I think the Top 36 format produced some interesting results. With essentially just one performance to get into the Top 13, we weren’t given much to go on when the Top 13 finally began. It made all of us think that Lil Rounds was a shoe in for the Top 3. It allowed for us to be caught up in the fact that Scott was blind and his story was so compelling that we should vote him in. Had he needed to sing a week or two more to get there, he may not have made the Top 13…or at least would have been eliminated sooner than he was. Trust me, I was caught up in it too. The format also allowed someone like Kris Allen to sneak into the Top 13 and quietly gain momentum all the way to the title.

The judges save ended up being more of an exercise in cruelty, than a way to assure the best singers made it through. Now, instead of just singing because you’re sad you just got voted off, you’re singing scared, because you may have a chance to get saved. Then, you get rejected by the judges too…brutal. Using it on Matt Giraud really diminished its credibility. They should have used it on Alexis. I’m sure it will be back next season. I just hope it actually does something. If not, it would be nice if they just didn’t use it.

Was this the best season ever, with the most talent (as the judges mentioned on several occasions)? This is hard to say right now. Certainly, when you line up the contestants from each season, it seems as though the singers this year were the strongest. With the exceptions of Jasmine, Jorge, Michael and, yes, Scott, the vocal talent was pretty solid this year. When you add the fact that you had a freak of nature, once-in-a-lifetime vocal and performing talent like Adam, the scales are tipped in Season 8’s favor. The bottom line is that the talent should get stronger each season. More and more people know about the show and how it can change their lives. The competition breeds excellence. I think this is one of the reasons this show is so popular. As soon as we have a season where there is a drop off in singing talent, American Idol will have jumped the shark. Until then, it will remain the most popular and successful show on TV…or until Simon leaves.

POOL RECAP

The Top 16 (15%) of our 105 pool entries are getting paid. Here are the winners again, along with their payouts:

1. Kathy Hunter - $300
2. Jen Davies - $150
3. Kim Skorupa - $80
4. Tiffany Sannes - $70
5. Isabel DeVera - $60
6T. Daryl Bakke - $52.50
6T. Presley Ruona - $52.50
8. Richard Venneri - $45
9T. Christian Wiehl - $32.50
9T. Kelly Gallagher - $32.50
9T. Lizanne Grothkopp - $32.50
9T. Muddy McCoy - $32.50
13T. Dawn Capecci - $22.50
13T. Paul & Jessica Brotherton - $22.50
15T. Jennifer Harowicz - $20
15T. Tami Duryee - $20

As soon as I have all fees, I’ll send out the winner’s checks.

In the meantime, if you are on this list, please e-mail me your mailing address so I know where to send your winnings.

…and now some extra special props to our pool champion, Kathy Hunter. Unlike Kris Allen, she cannot be considered an underdog. Not only was hers one of only five entries that picked Kris to win, she was one of only seven entries to pick David Cook to win last season…also finishing in the money. WAY TO GO KATHY!!!!

POWER OF THE POOL….AGAIN! (WISDOM FOR NEXT YEAR’S PICKS)

At the end of last season, I made a point about how the favorite to win Idol NEVER does. Kris made sure that streak stayed in tact.

In past seasons, going into the Top 10 or 12 or 13 (whatever the start of our beloved pool), there was a prohibitive favorite or two. This season was no different. The only exception was that there were three strong favorites this year (Adam, Danny & Lil). This was according to our pool, as well as betting lines, the judges, etc. So, when filling out your pool next season please keep the following free and valuable advice in mind.

With season 8 now added, this is how most of our pool members fail each and every year:

Here are the Favorites and Actual Winners of Each Season (plus how many pool entries correctly picked the Winner):

Season 1 - Fave: Justin Guarini Winner: Kelly Clarkson (n/a)
Season 2 - Fave: Clay Aiken Winner: Ruben Studdard (2 out of about 20)…10%
Season 3 - Fave: LaToya London Winner: Fantasia (5 out of 32)…16%
Season 4 - Faves: Bo Bice/Anwar Robinson Winner: Carrie Underwood (4 out of 34)…12%
Season 5 - Fave: Chris Daughtry Winner: Taylor Hicks (2 out of 57)…3.5%
Season 6 - Fave: Melinda Doolittle Winner: Jordin Sparks (0 out of 52)…0%
Season 7 - Fave: David Archuleta Winner: David Cook (7 out of 77)…9%
Season 8 - Faves: Adam Lambert, Danny Gokey & Lil Rounds Winner: Kris Allen (5 out of 105)…5%

My mom just pointed out another very interesting (and potentially valuable) piece of information about the winners of Idol. Six of the eight winners have been from the South. I looked at it even further (of course I did). The only two winners not from the South were Jordin Sparks (Arizona), who beat Blake Lewis (Seattle) and David Cook (Kansas City), who beat David Archuleta, (Utah). The young Southern voting block is a force to be reckoned with for sure. Keep that in mind next March.

STATISTICAL ODDITIES

I’m several pages through this last blog entry and I’m still fascinated by how unlikely Kris’ victory was. Let me point it out one last time:

1. Was 30 to 1 to win it all by bodoglife.com at the start of the Top 13. Even Jorge (25 to 1) and Scott (10 to 1) had better odds this season.

2. His average rank in our pool was 9.18, which was 11th best.

3. Only 20,000 votes separated he and Anoop during the Top 36 performances. Anoop came back as a wild card. Even the most hard core fans of Kris (which have come since then) might say that if he didn’t get into the Top 13 that night, he probably wouldn’t have made the wild card round.

4. Of the five entries that picked him to win, one was a random pick out of a hat. Two were made by Tiffany Sannes, who had not seen any episodes leading up to the Top 13. She made her picks solely on the short video clips of their Top 36 performances on the AI website. Maybe Tiffany should replace Kara next season. Tiffany obviously knows what America wants better than her…and can figure it out in a much more succinct manner. Nice job Tiff! Kathy Hunter and Jen Davies are just plain psychic.

How did this year’s pool compare to seasons past, you ask? Well, let’s take a look at how the scores break down:

Season 3: 32 entries, High Score:102, Low Score: 52, Avg, Score: 70
Season 4: 34 entries, High Score: 90, Low Score: 47, Avg. Score: 63
Season 5: 57 entries, High Score: 86, Low Score: 45, Avg. Score: 68
Season 6: 55 entries, Couldn’t find standings for this season. Hmmm???
Season 7: 77 entries, High Score: 91, Low Score: 46, Avg. Score: 66
Season 8: 105 entries, High Score: 94, Low Score: 35, Avg. Score: 63

In theory, one would think the scores for this season would be higher, given the fact that there was a Top 13 instead of a Top 12, giving one more week’s worth of scoring.

In reality, there were two reasons I believe the scoring was a bit lower:

1. A few contestants really drove this year’s average scores down. The most notable were:

*Alexis. Her average pool rank was 5.83, which was 5th amongst the contestants. Nine people picked her to win (none of which was a randomly picked pool to my knowledge). Her 11th place ousting really screwed up some pools early.

*Lil: She had the highest average pool rank at 2.78. Over 70% of us had her in the Top 3. 24 people picked her as their Idol. Her fall from grace didn’t so much kill anyone, as we all had her ranked high, but it sure did drive down the overall scores.

*Kris: I’ve already exhausted you with how improbable his run was. In turn, he drove down the average score even more than Lil.

2. Randomly picked pools. I’m not sure of the official number, but there were a lot of pools picked at random. A few folks picked their winner and then randomly filled in the rest. While our consensus wasn’t spectacular as far as results, I do think that people that actually watched the show prior to picking did better. Ironically enough, our last place pool (sorry to throw you under the bus James Munger) actually tried to pick correctly…or at least I assume so. The double irony is that James was the one that asked me about comparing the scoring to past season. The triple irony is that James’ score of 35 this year set the record for lowest score in pool history, crushing the previous record low of 45.

James is another pool boy who runs an awesome NFL weekly picks pool, NCAA Tournament pool and Oscar pool to name a few. Let me know if you’re ever interested and I’ll hook you up. I may be teaming up with him on the standings page for this pool next season, as he is way more technologically advanced than I am.

PARTING WORDS

I’m sure you weren’t ready for that novel of a recap, so I apologize for being so verbose.

I wanted to thank everyone for being part of this pool and my blog. My absolute favorite part of the Idol season is getting to hear from my Idolites when I say something stupid or just to give me a word of encouragement. It’s nice to have a place to spout off about my favorite show and not have to hold back.

I hope you all enjoyed it as much as I did.

Until next January…

Pool Boy Out!

An Upset? A Crime? All That And More

Idolites –

Since we were hosting a little viewing party last night, I didn’t take my normal notes on the show and am writing off the top of my head on the bus.

Yes, we all know I wanted Adam to win. Adam should have won, based on his dominant performances all season long. Even Kris, as he was crowned the winner last night said, “Adam deserves this. Sorry.” Alas, it is votes that win this competition and Kris was able to get more than anyone when it counted.

It is truly the one of the biggest upsets I can recall in any competition. Not necessarily his victory last night, but his entire journey. I was shocked when he beat out Anoop in the Top 36, to make it in the Top 13. He was picked by the odds makers at 30 to 1 to win it all (only Michael Sarver was a longer shot at 50 to 1). Even our pool disrespected Kris, giving him an average ranking of 11th place…he wasn’t even supposed to be on the Idols tour for crying out loud.

Yet, week after week, he slipped by and built momentum along the way. So, even though I’m still a little bitter that the best contestant didn’t win, I have to give Kris props for literally coming out of nowhere to steal this thing.

I am going to write one last blog entry this weekend that will recap the season, our pool and last night’s show.

Today, I will try and think of the great things that happened last night. Like my man Norman Gentle getting to perform one last time and Adam rocking out with KISS.

Congrats to Kathy Hunter, our 2009 Pool Champion, who just a few weeks ago was poking fun at her own pool with me because she had picked Kris to win.

Enjoy the long weekend and be sure to send me your pool fees if you still haven’t gotten them to me. I hope to pay out all the winners next week.

Until this weekend…pool boy out!