who will be the next American Idol?

Friday, January 16, 2009

Has It Really Come To This? A History Of This American Idol Pool...And Other Potentially Useful Information

Historical Perspective
It was the Summer of 2002 and I was channel surfing at home. I came across this new reality show called American Idol. I stopped to watch and was instantly hooked. The bad auditions, the brutally honest British judge, the purity of the competition and the fact that some unknown singer was going to get a record deal was quite intoxicating.

Of course, if you know me (as many of you do), you understand how I love to compete. I couldn't just sit back and passively watch the show unfold. So, I offered up a bet with one of my sales reps at the time, Nate. We each drafted 5 singers from the Top 10. Once one of our singers was eliminated, we received points equaling their finish (ex. a 10th place finish got 10 points, 9th place, 9 points, etc.). The person with the lowest point total at the end of the show would be the winner.

Nate got to choose first and took Kelly Clarkson (which I thought was stupid, because I didn't think she should have made the Top 10...this was a prelude to my lack of ability to pick winners in this competition). I then had two picks: I first chose my favorite to win, Justin Guarini. I then picked Tamyra Gray. Nate stepped out and took Ryan Starr as his second pick. Here is how the rest of the picks ended up:

Nate: Kelly Clarkson, Ryan Starr, Christina Christian, AJ Gil, and Jim Verraros
Aaron: Justin Guarini, Tamyra Gray, Nikki McKibbin (My first Idol crush), RJ Helton and EJ Day.

Needless to say, with the #2, #3, #4 and #5 place finishers, I wiped up the floor with Nate before the season was even over.

That was the last time I did well in this pool.

When Season 2 came around, there were more people starting to watch (though few people would admit it) and I was able to set up the pool as it is runs today...predicting the order of finish by the Top 12 finalists. Here is a snapshot of how the pool has grown and who has come out on top:

Season........# of Entries............Winner
#1.........................2...................Aaron Soenke Ruona
#2........................24..................Beth Shanaman
#3........................32..................
Rosann Albasi
#4........................34..................Barbara Ruona (woo hoo Mom!!)
#5........................54..................Jennifer Harowicz (and her mom)
#6........................52*.................Valerie Black
#7........................77...................Nancy Ging

* The Taylor Hicks effect

By the looks of things, I'd say it's time for a dude to step up!

It will be interesting to see how many entries we end up with this season. I imagine we will easily top 100, given the current interest level. Thus, this blog.

Why a blog?
Through the first 7 seasons, I have made my post performance comments via e-mail. Of course, that would result in a pretty full in-box for most people on Wednesdays and Thursdays as the 'reply-to-all' button was used liberally. I found it to be very cool and looked forward to hearing what people had to say. However, I know it became annoying for others.

For someone who considers himself fairly tech savvy, I have kept myself at a distance from things such as MySpace, Facebook, blogs, etc. I could never understand why people would want to read them. I took the Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer stance. Well, within the past 3 weeks, I have started up my own Facebook page and am now hosting a blog...times they are a changin'!

This blog will give everyone that wants to, a chance to express their opinions and hate on me in a format that won't annoy those that just want to be in the pool.

What To Expect?
For those of you returning to the pool, welcome back! You know the drill.

For those of you new to the pool, here are some semi-interesting things to know:
  • I refer to the wonderful people in our pool as Idolites...that means you, Idolite.
  • I love American Idol (I have seen all 284 episodes)!
  • I was in the Kodak Theater with my good friends (and long-time Idolites) Leanna & Nadia Mix in September, 2002 when Kelly Clarkson was crowned the first American Idol (and, yes, I was one of about 8 people in the building rooting for Justin).
  • At times, my commentary may lead you to think I don't like the show.
  • I agree with Simon about 90% of the time.
  • I HATE when singers do songs by Celine Dion, Whitney Houston, Christina Aguilera, etc.
  • I tend to root for the "rockers".
  • I like to use periods a lot....just like that! (and exclamation points too!!)
  • After each Tuesday performance show (once we hit the Top 12), I will give my take on the performances. I will then list my best and worst performances, my best and worst dressed, my thoughts on who should be in the bottom 3, and my thoughts on who will be in the bottom 3.
  • I make comments in bullet-point format and they are mostly random in nature...just like I'm doing now (might I have a deep-seeded love of dots?).
  • You may always tell me how full of crap I am on this blog.
  • I am almost never right.
  • I most always finish horribly in the pool.
  • I update the pool standings after each Wednesday decision show. Since they are in a crazy-big Excel spreadsheet, I will send the updates via e-mail.
  • Once you see the standings page, you will think I'm a freak...if you don't already.
  • We host an Idol finale party at our house in May for those living in the Seattle-area. Details will come as we get closer.
I don't normally do any commentary until we get to the Top 12 and the pool is underway, as I don't want to influence any one's picks...trust me, this is for your benefit (unless you just pick the opposite of what I am saying, I suppose). Given we have this cool blog tool now, I may comment on some of the bad singers and judges from time to time over the next couple of months. I will also be posting polls for your entertainment. So check in from time to time and see what I have come up with. I believe you can subscribe to this blog below and get e-mails whenever I make a post, but don't quote me on that. The caveman is still thawing after all.

Thank you for being part of this. It is always a lot of fun.

Aaron